Why it matters
- The report is a key input to the Federal Reserve's Oct. 27–28 decision.
- Strong hiring or faster wage growth could push bond yields even higher.
- Stocks, the dollar and bitcoin have all been trading on rate expectations this week.
The day ahead: scheduled events and what forecasters expect.
The U.S. Labor Department publishes its September employment report today at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, 12:30 GMT.
Forecasts vary. The consensus compiled by Newsquawk calls for 98,000 new jobs, down from 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1% and average hourly earnings up 3.2% from a year earlier. Reuters cited a forecast of 90,000 jobs.
Why it matters today
Markets head into the report on edge. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% on Thursday, its highest since 2002, and Federal Reserve officials have signaled that another rate increase may be needed to bring inflation, still near 3%, back toward their 2% goal.
That makes wages as important as the headline number. Faster pay growth would strengthen the case for a hike at the Fed's Oct. 27–28 meeting. A weak report could give bonds some relief.
Other markets are waiting too. Bitcoin rose about 3% overnight to around $86,650, Investing.com reported, but traders noted that a strong jobs number could revive rate-hike worries.
Also on the calendar
- Euro area flash inflation, September: due this morning, European time.
- China Golden Week: mainland markets stay closed through Oct. 7.
Sources
- Newsquawk, Preview: U.S. September jobs data
- Investing.com (Reuters), European shares edge higher, focus on inflation data
- Investing.com, Bitcoin rises to $86.5k with "Uptober" hopes
- Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting calendars