Get the daily brief
NIKKEI 22557,434.77−5.96%
HANG SENG24,481.86−1.27%
S&P/ASX 2009,020.80−0.49%
STOXX EUROPE 600648.33−1.00%
S&P 5007,376.86+0.31%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE24,579.42+1.09%
U.S. 10-YEAR4.86%+0.02
GERMANY 10-YEAR3.25%—
BRENT CRUDE98.32+0.03%
GOLD4,075−0.93%
EUR/USD1.1141—
BITCOIN75,710—

The Day Ahead: Dow Futures Up 2% as Democrats Projected to Win Congress

Dow futures rose about 2.1% before the open on Wednesday, Nov. 4, after CBS News projected Democrats would win both chambers; ADP and Qualcomm are in focus.

By Global Market Now Staff · · 5 min read

The dome of the United States Capitol building at sunset
Photo: Sebastian Schuster / Unsplash

Why it matters

  • Dow futures were up about 2.08% and S&P 500 futures about 1.11% around 8:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 4, Yahoo Finance data showed. Nasdaq 100 futures lagged, up about 0.45%.
  • CBS News projected Democrats would win control of the House and the Senate on Tuesday night. Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi were still unresolved Wednesday morning, CBS said.
  • Private employers added 86,000 jobs in October, ADP said. ISM services comes at 10 a.m. ET, a 17-week bill auction at 11:30 a.m., and Qualcomm reports after the close.

The day ahead: scheduled events and what forecasters expect.

U.S. stock futures rose before the open on Wednesday, Nov. 4, the day after the midterm elections. Dow futures were up about 2.08% and S&P 500 futures about 1.11% around 8:45 a.m. ET, according to Yahoo Finance data, after CBS News projected that Democrats would win control of both the House and the Senate. January Brent fell about 2.3% to $101.23 a barrel.

The 9:30 a.m. ET open is 14:30 GMT.

Where are futures and oil before the open?

Market, about 8:45 a.m. ETLevelChange vs. Tuesday
Dow futures52,976+2.08%
S&P 500 futures7,680.75+1.11%
Nasdaq 100 futures28,432.50+0.45%
Russell 2000 futures2,872.30+1.67%
10-year Treasury yield4.92%−0.03 point
Brent crude, January ($/barrel)101.23−2.29%
WTI crude, December ($/barrel)93.93−2.25%
Gold futures ($/ounce)4,056.50+2.95%

Source: Yahoo Finance chart data. Levels are delayed and approximate. The 10-year change is from Treasury's Tuesday close of 4.95%. Oil changes are from Tuesday's settlements reported by Reuters: January Brent at $103.60 and December WTI at $96.09.

Futures had dropped overnight. Nasdaq 100 futures touched 27,615.75, their lowest since July 30, before rebounding, CNBC reported. CNBC said the decisive result removed a source of political uncertainty, while Nasdaq 100 futures lagged on weakness in AI stocks.

Clean-energy and health care stocks rose before the bell. First Solar was up about 11.0%, Molina Healthcare 6.0% and HCA Healthcare 5.6% around 8:58 a.m. ET, while Trump Media & Technology Group was down about 6.2%, Yahoo Finance data showed.

Overseas, the Nikkei 225 fell 1.42% as Tokyo reopened; see our Asia Wednesday recap. The STOXX 600 was up about 1.8% as banks rallied; see our Europe Wednesday recap. Tuesday's U.S. session is in our Americas Tuesday recap.

What did the midterm results show?

CBS News projected late Tuesday that Democrats had won enough seats to take control of the House, and later projected that Democrats would win control of the Senate. CNBC's Election Desk also projected that Democrats would win the House, CNBC reported.

Some races are still open. As of 8:51 a.m. ET on Wednesday, the Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi remained unresolved, and CBS rated both as toss-ups. CBS said Democrats had won enough races to control at least 54 Senate seats. Several House races had not been projected, so the final size of the House majority is not yet known.

What did Treasury say in its refunding statement?

Treasury will sell $125 billion of notes and bonds next week, it said at 8:30 a.m. ET: a $58 billion 3-year note on Monday, Nov. 9, a $42 billion 10-year note on Tuesday, Nov. 10, and a $25 billion 30-year bond on Thursday, Nov. 12. The sizes are unchanged from August. Treasury said it "anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for the next several quarters." In August it said "for at least the next several quarters."

What is on today's U.S. calendar?

  • Released: ADP employment. Private employers added 86,000 jobs in October, ADP said. Annual pay growth was 3.0% for workers who stayed in their jobs and 4.8% for job-changers. CNBC said economists polled by Dow Jones expected 75,000.
  • Released: Trade. The goods and services deficit narrowed to $105.0 billion in September from a revised $105.7 billion in August, the Census Bureau and BEA said.
  • 10 a.m. ET (15:00 GMT): ISM services for October. The index was 54.9 in September, Trading Economics said, and its calendar lists the release at 15:00 GMT.
  • 11:30 a.m. ET: 17-week bill auction. Treasury is selling $75 billion of 17-week bills, with competitive bids due at 11:30 a.m. and settlement Tuesday, Nov. 10, TreasuryDirect shows.
  • Earnings: Qualcomm reports its fiscal fourth quarter after the close and holds a call at 1:45 p.m. Pacific time (4:45 p.m. ET), the company said. Nasdaq's earnings calendar also lists Arm Holdings, MercadoLibre and AppLovin after the close. Before the open, McDonald's posted adjusted earnings of $3.57 a share against a $3.38 estimate, but revenue of $7.16 billion missed, CNBC reported; its shares were up about 2.2%.

What else is due this week?

DateEvent
Wed., Nov. 4ISM services (10 a.m.); 17-week bill auction (11:30 a.m.); Qualcomm after the close
Thu., Nov. 5Bank of England decision, with its Monetary Policy Report
Fri., Nov. 6October jobs report (8:30 a.m.)
Mon., Nov. 93-year note auction, $58 billion (1 p.m.)

Sources: Treasury, TreasuryDirect, Trading Economics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bank of England and Qualcomm. Times are ET.

Upcoming releases are on our market calendar.

Follow the rest of the trading day on our global market today page, with the latest Asia, Europe and Americas session recaps.

Sources

Wake up to the world

Asia's close, Europe's open and the day ahead, in one email before 7 a.m. Eastern. Coming soon; follow via RSS until it launches.

Follow via RSS