Why it matters
- The U.S. trade deficit widened by $12.7 billion to $105.6 billion in August as imports rose faster than exports.
- S&P 500 futures rose about 0.4% before the open as the 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 5.27%.
- Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks at 10:45 a.m. ET, and a $58 billion 3-year note auction is due at 1 p.m.
The day ahead: scheduled events and what forecasters expect.
The U.S. trade deficit widened to $105.6 billion in August from a revised $92.8 billion in July, the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis said at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, Oct. 6. Stock futures were higher ahead of the 9:30 a.m. open.
How big was the August trade deficit?
Larger than forecast. Investing.com's calendar listed a forecast of a $95.2 billion deficit. The government's figures:
| Measure, August | Amount | Change from July |
|---|---|---|
| Goods and services deficit | $105.6 billion | +$12.7 billion |
| Exports | $315.2 billion | +$4.5 billion |
| Imports | $420.8 billion | +$17.2 billion |
| Goods deficit | $136.6 billion | +$12.8 billion |
| Services surplus | $31.0 billion | less than +$0.1 billion |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Imports of industrial supplies rose $9.1 billion, including $3.3 billion more crude oil and $3.1 billion more nonmonetary gold, the release said. Capital goods imports rose $6.2 billion, led by a $2.4 billion jump in semiconductors. On the export side, industrial supplies rose $6.3 billion, while consumer goods fell $2.2 billion.
The largest goods deficits were with Mexico ($27.7 billion), Vietnam ($24.0 billion), Taiwan ($18.3 billion) and China ($16.4 billion). Year to date, the deficit is down $138.2 billion, or 19.9%, from the same period of 2025.
Where are futures before the open?
Higher. S&P 500 futures traded at 7,856.75 around 8:40 a.m. ET, up 0.39%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.48% and Dow futures gained 0.51%, according to Yahoo Finance data. Reuters, via MarketScreener, said S&P 500 futures pointed to a record-high open.
The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 5.27% from 5.31% at Monday's close, Yahoo Finance data showed. Brent crude fell to about $97.56 a barrel, down 2.8% from Monday's settlement. Traders cut the odds of a Fed rate increase this month to 22% from about 50% a week earlier, after soft jobs data, Reuters reported.
Fed speakers, auctions and earnings
| Time (ET) | Event |
|---|---|
| 10:45 a.m. | Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman on "Modernizing Regulation and Supervision" |
| 11:30 a.m. | $95 billion 6-week Treasury bill auction |
| 1:00 p.m. | $58 billion 3-year Treasury note auction |
| 6:00 p.m. | Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks |
Sources: Federal Reserve calendar, TreasuryDirect, Investing.com (Logan).
RPM International, Lamb Weston and Apogee Enterprises were scheduled to report before the open, and Constellation Brands, Penguin Solutions, Neogen and Worthington Steel after the close, according to Nasdaq's earnings calendar. Analysts expect Constellation Brands to earn $3.62 a share, the calendar showed.
What's next this week?
Minutes from the Fed's Sept. 15–16 meeting come out Wednesday, Oct. 7, at 2 p.m. ET, according to the Fed's calendar. Our earlier preview has more on the week. Overnight moves are in our Asia Tuesday recap and Europe Tuesday recap, and the market calendar lists upcoming events.
Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026
- Investing.com, Trade balance, ADP employment, and Fed's Bowman among data due Tuesday
- Federal Reserve, Calendar: October 2026
- TreasuryDirect, Upcoming auctions
- Nasdaq, Earnings calendar, Oct. 6, 2026
- MarketScreener (Reuters), World shares advance as oil falls, bond yields retreat
- Yahoo Finance, S&P 500 futures chart data
- Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq 100 futures chart data
- Yahoo Finance, Dow futures chart data
- Yahoo Finance, 10-year Treasury yield chart data
- Yahoo Finance, Brent crude chart data